“An investigation has been launched into the crash of the Embraer aircraft,” the agency said in a statement. “According to the list of passengers, among them is the name and surname of Yevgeniy Prigozhin.”

There was no confirmation of his death Wednesday from Russian or U.S. officials, or from Prigozhin’s press service, which has not posted online since June. One Telegram channel associated with the Wagner Group urged against publishing “unverified data and messages” about Prigozhin’s fate.

But later Wednesday, Grey Zone, another Wagner-linked Telegram channel, posted an obituary: “The head of the Wagner Group, Hero of Russia, a true patriot of his Motherland – Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin died as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia,” the post read. “But even in Hell he will be the best! Glory to Russia!”

If confirmed, Prigozhin’s death would cap a meteoric rise and fall for a convict turned restaurateur turned warlord. He used his mercenary army to expand Russian influence in Africa and the Middle East and came to Putin’s rescue during his stalled invasion of Ukraine, only to rebel against the country’s military leadership and be branded an enemy of the state.

On June 23, Prigozhin launched what he called “the march of justice” — pulling his mercenary fighters from the front lines in Ukraine and sending them toward the Russian capital. The rebellion sent shock waves through Russia’s elite and posed an unprecedented challenge to Putin’s authority.

President Biden speculated in July that Prigozhin could be a target of assassination, like a number of Russian dissidents and journalists in the past, including opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who survived a poisoning in 2020.

“I’d be careful what I ate. I’d keep my eye on my menu,” Biden said last month. His comments were echoed by CIA Director William J. Burns at the Aspen Security Forum: “Putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold. So he’s going to try to settle the situation to the extent he can,” Burns said. “In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback.”

On Wednesday, as reports of Prigozhin’s death circulated, Biden told journalists: “I don’t know for a fact what happened, but I’m not surprised.”

Asked if Putin could be behind the crash, Biden said, “There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind. But I don’t know enough to know the answer.”

Eyewitnesses on Wednesday reported hearing two explosions before the plane tumbled from the sky and burst into flames in a field, Russian media reported. There were seven passengers and three crew members on board, aviation officials said, including Dmitry Utkin, Prigozhin’s second-in-command. The plane was flying from Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport to St. Petersburg, which is Prigozhin’s hometown and the site of Wagner’s former headquarters.

At least two Wagner-affiliated planes were in the air near Moscow on Wednesday evening, according to Grey Zone, adding to the confusion over who was killed.

A foul-mouthed, larger-than-life figure known for his ghoulish sense of humor and online media empire, Prigozhin was popular among rank-and-file soldiers and hard-line pro-war figures.

He recruited thousands of prisoners for the war in Ukraine — inviting murderers and thieves to fight in exchange for pardons — throwing them into battle in a tactic known as the “meat grinder.” Wave upon wave of ex-convicts were unleashed in near-suicidal attacks on the front lines of Bakhmut and other Ukrainian cities; anyone who fled would be shot by Wagner commanders, Prigozhin warned.

Before his downfall, he earned a reputation as a truth-teller, cutting through the triumphal tone of state media to detail the ugly reality of Russia’s military failures. In May, in his most brazen public stunt, Prigozhin posed in a field piled high with dead mercenaries and shouted obscenities at Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of Russia’s military, blaming them for “starving” Wagner forces of ammunition.

“We are 70 percent short of ammunition, Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the f— is the ammunition?” he screamed.

“You, scum, sit in expensive clubs, your kids are enjoying life, filming YouTube videos, you think you are masters of life and you have the right to dispose of their life,” he added, pointing to the corpses that surrounded him.

Even so, he appeared to remain on the right side of Putin, his longtime ally and benefactor, until embarking on his brief but momentous mutiny, which saw his forces occupy a military headquarters in southern Russia.

Putin appeared paralyzed during the first hours of the rebellion and, to the shock of many in Russia, ultimately agreed to a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko allowing Prigozhin to call off his forces in exchange for amnesty and the ability to relocate his fighters to Belarus.

Recounting the story of the negotiations later, Lukashenko said Prigozhin was concerned that Putin would “whack” him.

Russian security services dropped charges against Prigozhin, and he returned to Russia shortly after to meet with Putin and to collect cash and guns. He was later spotted in St. Petersburg during a Russia-Africa summit but had largely disappeared from public view in the weeks since.

In the aftermath of the rebellion, some high-ranking Russian generals complained openly about the failings of the Defense Ministry, an extraordinary breach of military discipline in a country where public dissent has been all but crushed.

Putin has since taken steps to tighten his control, appearing in public with Shoigu and Gerasimov, a clear message that any future criticism of the military would not be tolerated.

Janis Garisons, the state secretary of the Latvian Defense Ministry, said that if the Kremlin were indeed involved in the crash, it would be a signal that “Putin’s regime is stable and is strengthening itself,” though he emphasized that he did not yet have information confirming that Prigozhin was on the plane.

Experts, too, urged caution. Prigozhin was known to have numerous passports and body doubles who traveled under his name.

“Until we know for certain it’s the right Prigozhin, let’s not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa,” said Keir Giles, Russia analyst at the London-based Chatham House think tank.

“We are unlikely ever to know the true cause of the crash.” he added, because “there is no chance of any investigation that will be either transparent or reliable.”

Pro-Kremlin figures on Wednesday were quick to dismiss speculation that Prigozhin may have been assassinated by Russian authorities, and they sought to shift the blame to Ukraine.

Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political consultant, said that if Prigozhin had been killed, it was probably “a direct attack organized by Ukraine.”

“The Russians could have killed him,” he said. “But if the order was given to liquidate Prigozhin, then they would have killed him on his own, and not killed innocent people. … If Putin wanted to, he would have just had him arrested, and that would be it.”

A number of generals perceived as close to Prigozhin or critical of Shoigu have been dismissed or sidelined, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, known as “General Armageddon” for his ruthlessness on the battlefield. State media reported his dismissal as air force chief on Wednesday after months of rumors about his whereabouts. Prigozhin frequently praised Surovikin as one of Russia’s most competent generals.

Another officer, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, a force renowned in Russia for its roles in the Ukraine and Chechen wars, was fired last month after accusing Russia’s top brass of “treacherously and vilely decapitating the army at the most difficult and tense moment.”

Earlier this week, Prigozhin released his first video address since the mutiny, announcing that Wagner was shifting its focus back to Africa and recruiting experienced soldiers for new operations. Filmed in an unknown desert location, Prigozhin wore camouflage and held a rifle, vowing to make Russia “even greater on all continents and Africa more free.”

On Wednesday, as the hour grew late, mourners began to lay flowers outside Wagner’s former headquarters in St. Petersburg.

Roman Saponkov, a Russian pro-war blogger, wrote that an assassination of Prigozhin would have “catastrophic consequences,” as the mercenary boss was still highly regarded by front-line troops in Ukraine.

“The people who gave the order do not understand the mood in the army and the morale at all,” he wrote on Telegram.

Ebel reported from London. Catherine Belton in London, Natalia Abbakumova in Riga, Evan Hill in New York, and Michael Birnbaum and Ellen Nakashima in Washington contributed to this report.