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In the wake of losing a second consecutive game in regulation for the first time all season on Wednesday — the last NHL team to have held out that long — the Wild earned the right to express confidence that their recent play is a brief lapse and not a concerning trend.
“No season is perfect, right?” goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who gave up six goals in 33 shots, said after the 6-1 loss to the Panthers. “Right now, we’re seeing a little adversity, and we’ve gotta find a way out of it and get back on the right track here.”
Fleury may be correct, given that the Wild (20-8-4) have weathered almost every situation thrown at them already this season, including injuries that lately have been mounting. But a deeper look into some advanced numbers shows where the Wild are potentially vulnerable to a prolonged regression — as well as singling out one injury they better hope is only minor. I talked about the state of the team on Thursday’s Daily Delivery podcast.
The Wild largely have made up for that by being an excellent 5-on-5 team, outscoring opponents 65-48 in those situations.
But here’s the problem with that: Per Hockey Reference, the Wild are actually more of an average 5-on-5 team when it comes to expected goals scored and allowed. In those categories, which factor in shot quality among other things, the Wild are expected to have scored 61.7 goals while allowing 62.4.
So their actual goal differential 5-on-5 vs. their expected goal differential 5-on-5 is plus-18, the highest mark in the league. The next biggest gap is plus-14.
And most of that gap is accounted for in goals allowed (62.4 expected, 48 actual). And the majority of that better-than-expected goaltending has come from Filip Gustavsson, who by almost every objective measure has played like one of the best goalies in the league so far this season.
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