Two-month battle to replace ex-Rep. George Santos could cost $20 million

The two month race to represent the New York House district once held by the ousted Republican Rep. George Santos is expected to cost up to $20 million, according to political strategists.

The stakes could hardly be higher: Republicans hold an eight seat majority after Santos’ expulsion, and the party will be playing defense in a tough political climate next year. The outcome of February’s race is pivotal to maintaining their majority.

Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi and Mazi Melesa Pilip, a local Republican legislator in Nassau County, were selected by their state party’s leadership to run in a special election scheduled for Feb. 13. after Santos was expelled from Congress.

The New York district, which spans from parts of Queens and through a portion of Long Island, is among 15 Republican held districts The Cook Political Report says are toss-ups. Republicans only have an eight seat majority in the House and, for that reason, voters should expect a massive amount of spending in the district as both parties fight for control of Congress, according to the strategists.

Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the Suozzi and Pilip campaigns will likely each spend anywhere from $7 to $10 million in next two months. That money, which does not include spending by outside groups, would go to get out the vote efforts, including television and digital advertising campaigns.

It will be “the most expensive this cycle and, when all the monies spent from all sources, one of the most expensive in New York history because the stakes are so high,” Sheinkopf said.

A Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity as he tries to get Pilip elected over Suozzi, predicted that each side would likely spend at least $3 million, tying the amount Santos and his Democratic opponent Robert Zimmerman spent during the entirety of the 2022 midterms.

The two candidates vying to represent the influential New York district will likely see the help of business leaders, who have had previous allegiances with the contenders.

Suozzi’s been a successful fundraiser during his past congressional campaigns by raising over $9 million since his first congressional run, according to data from OpenSecrets. He’s raised over $2 million from those in industries of real estate, securities and investment and law.

Bank of America’s political action committee has given Suozzi over $19,000 since he first ran for Congress, according to the data.

While Pilip may not have the same experience as Suozzi, she too has a track record of raising money from some wealthy donors who could end up financing her run against Suozzi.

Ronald Lauder, a billionaire cosmetics heir, gave Pilip’s local Nassau County legislator campaign just over $2,000 in 2021, according to New York state campaign finance records reviewed by CNBC. Lauder has a net worth of over $4 billion, according to Forbes.

A spokesman for Lauder did not return a request for comment.

Pilip also received just over $3,000 from a limited liability company controlled by New York real estate executive Hersel Torkian, according to campaign finance and business records.

The company, titled 110 Greenwich, has donated three different times to Pilip’s former campaign account this year alone. Though the company has not contributed to any other federal or New York state candidate, Torkian has donated to Suozzi’s previous congressional campaigns, according to the data.

Torkian did not return requests for comment.

Michael Deery, the spokesman for the Nassau County GOP, told CNBC that party allies have already started reaching out to Pilip to ask how they can help with fundraising. He did not say who those allies are.

“She’s not going to have any problems raising money,” Deery added.