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(This is CNBC Pro’s live coverage of Wednesday’s analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. Please refresh every 20-30 minutes to view the latest posts.) Analyst calls on Wednesday include a big upgrade for burger chain Shake Shack. Raymond James raised its rating on the stock to strong buy from outperform, citing opportunities for margin expansion heading into 2024. The firm also sees more than 25% upside for shares. TD Cowen , meanwhile, named Liberty Media Formula One a top idea, saying the market is underappreciating key aspects of the racing series’ business. Check out the latest calls and chatter below. 6:40 a.m. ET: Bank of America downgrades Toast Momentum is slowing on restaurant services software company Toast , according to Bank of America. Analyst Jason Kupferberg downgraded shares to neutral from buy. He also lowered his price target by $6 to $16, which represents just 7.5% upside potential from Tuesday’s close. Shares were trading down by more than 3% during premarket trading Wednesday. TOST YTD mountain Toast falls “Aside from uncertain macro/restaurant spending trends, we believe TOST faces intensifying competition from the likes of SQ, FI (Clover), and FOUR, who have been narrowing gaps in product and/or distribution,” Kupferberg wrote in a Wednesday note. The company’s sales strategy transition, which is now focusing on maximizing net location adds, could result in a near-term “air pocket” for software-as-a-service average revenue per user growth, the analyst added. Toast will have a CEO transition on Jan. 1. 6:32 a.m. ET: Wall Street is ‘slightly positive’ on Shopify’s analyst day Shopify held its first investor day since 2019 on Tuesday, during which it outlined its market opportunity and product updates — without providing long-term targets. Shares of Shopify have rallied more than 115% in 2023. “We’d describe the analyst day as half a victory lap (albeit well deserved), underscoring SHOP’s transformation in 2023 with Jeff Hoffmeister at the helm — but also outlining an ambitious market opportunity with share gain potential beyond e-commerce,” said Citi analyst Tyler Radke in a note. Radke has a neutral rating on shares and $74 price target, which is less than $1 from where shares closed on Tuesday. Deutsche Bank, which has a buy rating and $85 price target on the company, said the event provided more clarity on near-term operating margin expansion and monetization opportunities. Barclays analyst Trevor Young was less enthused by the lack of long-term guidance or framework that can provide investors with benchmark measures for performance. Nonetheless, the firm noted Shopify’s strong execution and emergence as market leader in “omni-commerce enablement” in recent years. “Overall, we continue to see SHOP accruing share and putting up GMV growth well in excess of overall e-comm, but with sentiment unanimously bullish at present and little reason for positive consensus estimate revisions following this event, we think shares may consolidate a bit here,” Young wrote in a Tuesday note. Bank of America remains neutral on Shopify, but said it came away “more positive” on the company’s position “as the winning platform for ecommerce.” The firm raised its price target to $85 from $75, citing increased confidence in the company’s long-term margin expansion. — Hakyung Kim 6:11 a.m. ET: UBS upgrades Anheuser-Busch to neutral Although UBS is more optimistic on Anheuser-Busch , it’s still remaining on the sidelines of the stock. Analyst Sanjeet Aujla raised his rating on the company’s Europe-traded shares to neutral from sell in a Tuesday note. The company also trades in the U.S. While the U.S.-traded shares are up just 5.2% in 2023, the stock has outperformed by about 15% over the last three months. UBS also increased its price target to €59 from €53 euros. The new price target is less than €1 above where shares closed on Tuesday. Aujla said while he’s bullish on organic EBITDA growth in 2024 and a strong margin recovery, he remains cautious on volumes across all regions, which he believes could hold back the stock’s valuation multiples. “Across its major Emerging markets, ABI’s digital transformation, and the improved trajectory of its mainstream brand is affording [its] pricing power, which supports a strong gross margin recovery,” said Aujla. While the analyst expects some share improvement in its U.S. business following a marketing controversy that led to a boycott of its Bud Light beer, he believes consensus could be too optimistic. Emerging markets also show downside risk to volumes and the company is at risk of losing some of its market share gains in some regions, added Aujla. — Hakyung Kim 5:38 a.m. ET: Morgan Stanley downgrades Plug Power Morgan Stanley sees trouble ahead for Plug Power . The bank downgraded shares to underweight from equal weight. It also lowered its price target by 50 cents to $3 per share, which suggests 30% downside from Tuesday’s close. “Even after the underperformance in 2023, we see significant risk around PLUG’s business model given the operational challenges that the company has faced in commercializing its first few green hydrogen facilities,” analyst Arthur Sitbon said in a Wednesday note. Plug Power shares have plunged 47% in the last three months, pulling the stock down 63% in 2023. PLUG YTD mountain PLUG in 2023 Unless Plug Power has “near-perfect execution” and a potential dilutive capital raise, the company likely can’t execute its strategy, added Sitbon. He thinks the company will remain under significant pressure until it can build profitable green hydrogen production facilities, which has been challenged by delays and cost over-runs. “The combined effect of sustained pressure in its fuel-delivery business and required capex to fix this margin issue, as well as working-capital headwinds and margin pressure as the company scales its new product lines, is putting significant pressure on its liquidity position,” said Sitbon. — Hakyung Kim 5:26 a.m. ET: Raymond James upgrades Shake Shack There’s a significant long-term shareholder opportunity in Shake Shack , according to Raymond James. The firm upgraded the burger chain to strong buy from outperform in a Wednesday note. Analyst Brian Vaccaro kept his target price of $78, which implies nearly 27% upside potential from Tuesday’s close. Vaccaro thinks “the company is still in the early innings of driving improved margins and lowering development costs.” Shake Shack also has “idiosyncratic opportunities into 2024 to increase margins and potentially stimulate traffic, which could create upside to consensus 2024 expectations (currently modeling EBITDA margins up only 30 bp),” Vaccaro said. Shake Shack should also see supply chain savings in 2024 as it expands its vendor relationships, the analyst noted. The company’s management also previously expressed confidence in its ability to create higher margins in 2024, noted Vaccaro. — Hakyung Kim 5:26 a.m. ET: TD Cowen names Liberty Media Formula One a top 2024 idea Analyst Stephen Glagola named Liberty Media Formula One his best idea for the new year, reiterating an outperform rating on the racing series along with a price target of $90 per share. That forecast implies upside of 44.5% from Tuesday’s close. “The business is uniquely and defensively situated with highly contracted revenues/variable cost structure,” Glagola wrote. “We think the market is underappreciating improving asset utilization, particularly undermonetized US media rights and year-round [Las Vegas Grand Prix]/Paddock contribution.” Last month, Formula One held its first race in Las Vegas since the 1980s. Despite the race starting at 1 a.m. ET, more than 1 million viewers tuned in. “We expect the company’s Q4:23 results to support a successful year-1 LVGP; reiterating our $500MM revenue and $76MM contribution profit estimates,” the analyst said. “We expect LVGP contribution profit to grow meaningfully in 2024+ as FWON launches year-round events for the Paddock and sponsorship activations which is not be susceptible to F1 team payment share.” Shares have risen more than 7% year to date, lagging the S & P 500’s 18.9% rally in that time. FWONA YTD mountain Formula One shares in 2023 — Fred Imbert
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