Bill Belichick will cast a large shadow over the NFL throughout the 2024 season.
The coaching legend is out of the league for the first time in 50 years, but he’ll have a ghost-like presence in many buildings, specifically among those franchises with coaches under intense pressure to win now.
Whether Belichick actually gets another coaching job remains to be seen. Still, there’s no question his free-agent status will be among the most heavily discussed topics around the league during the season. In fact, it’s already been a prominent topic at various facilities.
You can understand why. This is a completely unprecedented situation. There’s never been a six-time Super Bowl champion head coach waiting on standby — though with a meaty media schedule — to sift through the inevitable wave of job openings in January.
Call it The Belichick Cloud.
“That will definitely be a much bigger cloud than we’ve seen in a long time,” said a high-ranking team executive, who, like the other sources in this story, was granted anonymity so he could speak candidly.
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The Dallas Cowboys are the obvious connection. Mike McCarthy, who is on an expiring contract, has 36 regular-season victories and just a single playoff triumph over the past three years, so the Cowboys may need to advance deep into January for McCarthy to keep his job.
And even then, would it be enough? The Cowboys still have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, and owner Jerry Jones isn’t afraid to go star-chasing. If Jones believes Belichick would give his ready-made contender the best chance to end a three-decade Super Bowl drought, it could be the perfect fit for both sides.
“Nothing (the Cowboys) could do would surprise me,” an assistant coach from another team opined.
Belichick, who will turn 73 in April, has his own short-term goals. He’s got 333 career victories, including the playoffs, and needs another 15 to surpass Don Shula for the all-time record. Belichick’s legacy is secure without hitting that benchmark, but he still wants to hit it.
Therefore, a team in need of a roster reconstruction wouldn’t be a logical fit, not personally or organizationally. So while Belichick will forever be linked to the New York Giants, whom he helped guide to two Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator, they’re still in the middle of a large-scale rebuild in the third year of the Joe Schoen-Brian Daboll ticket.
Other teams that could potentially match a more suitable criteria could include the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles. While the Bills have won double-digit regular-season games in five consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history, they haven’t gotten over the hump in the playoffs. If Sean McDermott can’t buck that trend, would ownership consider a run at Belichick?
Nick Sirianni has also caught plenty of heat in Philly. In fact, when the Eagles practiced in Foxboro this month, a fan yelled at Sirianni that Belichick would be taking his job next year, so he’s already privy to the noise.
Patriots fan just yelled at Nick Sirianni
“Hey Sirianni, Bill is taking your job next year”
Going to be an intense practice today
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) August 13, 2024
“(It’s) definitely a distraction,” another assistant coach said, “especially if the coaching staff is on an expiring contract. (It’s) important to get off to a good start, I would think.”
There’s an important element at play that must also not be overlooked, though. There were seven coaching vacancies last offseason, not including the New England Patriots, and Belichick still wound up without a job.
The Athletic reported in February that three primary factors played into that: Belichick’s mishandling of the Patriots’ quarterback situation, including the events that led to Tom Brady’s departure in 2020 and the failure to develop Mac Jones, Belichick’s desire to maintain total control of football operations and a concern over his inability to relate to a younger generation of players.
The same apprehension still exists.
“If the model is the New England model, you’re blowing up the operation as you know it,” a personnel executive said. “If you’re doing that with a 73-year-old head coach, you’re blowing up your personnel operation and starting over with a head coach who may only be there for three years. There’d be a lot of questions.
“It’s got to be an owner who is in a situation where they need to win now because it’s not a hire for the future. It’s not future-oriented. It’s present-oriented. And then what do you do for two years? How do you sustain success?”
Another executive simply asked, “Do you really think Jerry and Stephen (Jones) are giving personnel control to (Belichick)?”
It’s surely conceivable the year away will soften Belichick’s stance on maintaining roster control, especially if the alternative means he’s coached his last game. Jerry Jones has long since established he’ll remain the Cowboys’ general manager, and his aligned vision with Stephen Jones and Will McClay has yielded a premium roster.
Similarly with the Eagles, Howie Roseman is widely viewed as one of the best general managers in the NFL. Even if owner Jeffrey Lurie ultimately approved a coaching change, it’d be somewhat stunning if he took away responsibilities from Roseman.
The Bills are in a unique spot of their own on that front. General manager Brandon Beane and McDermott have worked together since 2011 when they were with the Carolina Panthers. If owner Terry Pegula determines Belichick is the better option after the season, would Pegula view Beane and McDermott as a package deal, or force Beane and Belichick to make serious adjustments and figure it out?
It’s also fair to remain concerned over Belichick’s delivery. His old-school, hardline approach with players has become the exception in the modern landscape, as players have gained a greater appreciation for coaches who empower the locker room. While older generations of coaches, players or fans may roll their eyes at that notion, it doesn’t change the truth. Those who have refused to adapt have had shorter shelf lives in their roles.
At any rate, these questions will continue to help drive the conversation, which will only fuel the speculation in several buildings. Strong starts will be imperative to curb the discussion in places like Dallas, Philly and even Buffalo where the debate has already started, either as a whisper or otherwise. But as history has shown, a few purported Super Bowl contenders will limp or fall out of the starting blocks, leading to a new group of potential Belichick suitors.
“The teams that struggle the first two months who have high expectations, you’re going to have that pressure anyway, whether it’s Belichick hanging overhead or anyone else,” an executive said.
But if sports-talk speculation seeps into the building, either in news conferences or conversations among coaches or front office executives who are wondering about their future, tensions could rise in certain organizations.
“I believe it could become annoying and could be a distraction if it’s constantly asked about and mentioned,” an executive said.
Belichick won’t be hard to find this season. He’s got various media roles lined up, so he’ll surely hear questions about the matter. He may duck them to avoid putting a former colleague in a bad spot, but it won’t take much to generate headlines.
And that hoodie-shaped cloud will remain overhead.
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(Photo illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of Bill Belichick, Nick Sirianni and Mike McCarthy: Cooper Neill, Mitchell Leff and Adam Bettcher)