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With only five weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, we’re not only thinking about the playoff picture but about the 2025 NFL Draft, as well. While it may seem like a foregone conclusion that the worst teams are just going to keep losing every week, and some of them will, we can’t forget that unpredictable upsets happen — or nearly happen — every week.
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Look all the way back to last week. The Las Vegas Raiders were one bounce away from taking down the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, the team that my NFL projection model says has the best chance at landing the first overall pick was that close to beating the team with the best record … on the road! But the Raiders weren’t the only bottom-feeder close to a victory last week. The New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns were all within one score at the final whistle. And at this point in the season, one win can swing the odds drastically.
So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at which teams are most likely to secure the coveted No. 1 pick. Six teams have at least a 4% chance of snagging it, and while two teams are leading the way by a large margin, there are still some huge games to be played between some of these “contenders.”
Raiders’ odds of picking No. 1: 30%
When we did this exercise a few weeks ago, the Raiders were at 30%, so they’ve stayed “on track.” The Raiders face three playoff teams down the stretch — one is Week 18, and who knows if the Chargers will have anything to play for — but the Raiders’ fate will hang heavily on their Week 16 game against the Jaguars. The Jaguars not having quarterback Trevor Lawrence, whom they placed on IR, is a huge factor, but just by nature of these teams playing one another (practically) guarantees one of these teams will have at least three wins after that matchup. As it stands right now, my projections make the Raiders favorites to win.
Raiders remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
30% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 16 |
36% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
63% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
35% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
33% |
Giants’ odds of picking No. 1: 30%
The Giants are a big riser in these odds over the past few weeks, as they’ve seen their chances double. A big reason why is that QB Daniel Jones is no longer with the team, while superstar defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is out for the year. In short, the Giants were already bad, and they’re only getting worse.
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But a major reason why their odds are so high now is that they have no easy games the rest of the way. They play the Saints this week, and that’s the best chance they have to win a game for the rest of the season. After the Saints, all four remaining games are against teams in the playoff hunt, with two of them coming on the road.
Giants remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
34% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
19% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
22% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
33% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
18% |
Jaguars’ odds of picking No. 1: 15%
The Jaguars are maybe the most interesting team when it comes to the draft order. As mentioned above, they have a huge Week 16 matchup with the Raiders that will swing their odds a good bit. But that’s not all. They also have two matchups against the lowly Tennessee Titans and the disastrous New York Jets. Even without Lawrence, those are winnable games, which is why their odds to pick first aren’t as good despite being one of the worst teams in the league. In four of their five remaining games, they still have a better than 30% chance to win.
Jaguars remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
33% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
45% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
37% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
47% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
27% |
Patriots’ odds of picking No. 1: 11%
Have you seen the Patriots’ schedule the rest of the way? It’s not great, well, unless you want a better draft pick. Drake Maye has been awesome as a rookie QB, all things considered, but four games remaining against playoff teams, including two matchups with the Bills, is a gantlet. Sure, one of those Bills games is Week 18, but as of now, the Bills are still in contention for a first-round bye and will be trying to win that game. It’s very possible the Patriots lose their final four games. But because they have three wins already, they’ll need some “help” if they’re going to pick No. 1.
Patriots remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
NA |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
30% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
19% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
34% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
27% |
Jets’ odds of picking No. 1: 5%
The Jets’ odds have seen a 2% increase over the past three weeks, and they are now the sixth-most likely team to pick No. 1. It’s safe to say the Aaron Rodgers-era in New York has been nothing short of a disaster, and a better draft pick will be a small silver lining.
Jets fans should be rooting for the Dolphins to beat the Jets this week and to keep winning games so that their Week 18 matchup means something. That will only help the Jets’ draft stock. Otherwise, the schedule works out pretty decently with tough matchups against the Rams and Bills. However, their Week 15 matchup with the Jaguars will be huge for where they land in the pecking order. I still think the Jets are a bit too talented to keep losing, but you just never know with this team. Maybe they’ve already packed it in.
Jets remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
30% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
55% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
41% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
21% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
46% |
Panthers’ odds of picking No. 1: 4%
The resurgence of QB Bryce Young has given the Panthers quite the boost by my model’s projections, which has hurt their odds of landing the top pick. But I think that’s a good trade-off for Carolina. The Panthers needed to know if it was worth giving Young another shot next year, and I think the last month or so has given them that confidence.
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They have four games remaining against playoff-hopeful teams that should keep their win total low. Still, this team has been feisty for about a month now — the Panthers nearly beat the Chiefs and Bucs — so don’t be surprised if they steal a game or two.
Panthers remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
16% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
49% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
30% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
25% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
26% |
(Photo of Aidan O’Connell and Tommy DeVito: Steve Marcus / Getty Images)
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