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Investors thought they had the whole “Trump Trade” figured out, until, unfortunately, they didn’t. Stocks and other risky assets rallied strongly in the wake of Donald Trump ‘s decisive triumph in the Nov. 5 presidential election as markets bet on expansionary fiscal policy and easing regulations that would spark another leg up for Wall Street and Main Street as well. However, the narrative has shifted over the past several days. What had been high hopes for growth morphed into worries about inflation and how the Federal Reserve might respond. Consequently, major averages have taken out a good share of the gain they achieved following Election Day, and traders suddenly have priced in fewer rate cuts ahead. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, in an interview Friday with CNBC, underscored the tug of war that the market will have to wrestle with ahead. “As long as we keep making progress toward the 2% inflation goal of over the next 12 to 18 months, rates will be a lot lower than where they are now,” Goolsbee said on CNBC’s ” Squawk Box .” However, he went on to back up Chair Jerome Powell ‘s statement Thursday that the Fed does not need to be “in a hurry” to cut. “I like this phrase, that we’re ‘not in a hurry’ to automatically get there,” Goolsbee said. “I do think if there’s disagreement of what’s the neutral rate, it does make sense at some point to start slowing.” Getting to neutral, or a place that neither boosts nor restrains growth, is the Fed’s ultimate goal, but Trump’s victory could complicate the journey. The burst of euphoria after Trump’s win actually complicates the situation by providing looser financial conditions that might make the Fed slower to ease. Matters got worse overnight Thursday when The Wall Street Journal ran an interview with Boston Fed President Susan Collins , who said the December cut is not “a done deal” though it is “certainly on the table.” Traders absorbed all the signals by taking a cautious view, selling stocks while also reducing the odds that the Fed will ease again in December. At one point Friday, futures traders took the chances of a move at the Dec. 17-18 meeting to as low as 55% from well above 80% earlier in the week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool . Late Friday, the odds were around 58%, which makes the likelihood of another 25 basis point move essentially a toss-up. Of course, there is a lot of data between now and that next meeting, so anything could happen. In any event, traders see a high likelihood that even if a December cut does happen, the Fed almost certainly will skip January as it assesses the landscape.
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